What if India grew like other countries?
An interactive counterfactual engine (1960–2047): pick any country's growth record, and India's GDP is extrapolated to 2047 at that pace — headline or sector-weighted — using World Bank Data360 data for 204 sovereign nations.
Solid line: India's actual GDP so far. Dashed lines: where India reaches by 2047 at each country's 2000–2020 pace.
Constant 2015 US$. Paces are 2000–2020 CAGRs.
| Scenario | 2025 | × | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India actual | — | $3.7T | — | 1.0× |
| If India keeps its own pace | 5.83% | $3.7T | $12.8T | 3.5× |
| If India grows like China | 8.67% | $3.7T | $23.0T | 6.2× |
| If India grows like United States | 1.94% | $3.7T | $5.6T | 1.5× |
| If India grows like Germany | 1.09% | $3.7T | $4.7T | 1.3× |
| If India grows like Japan | 0.63% | $3.7T | $4.2T | 1.1× |
Method: geometric CAGR = (Π(1 + r))1/n − 1 over the chosen window, applied to India's 2025 base ($3.7T, constant 2015 US$) and projected to 2047. Sector mode projects agriculture, industry, and services at their own CAGRs from India's base-year shares, then rescales to the headline base (manufacturing sits inside industry). Windows with under 80% year coverage are excluded. Fast growth partly reflects starting poor (base effect) — a high CAGR from a poorer country flatters the projection. Source: World Bank Data360, WDI.